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The CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and services organisations, Nigel Green, Monday, warned that a global recession is now almost inevitable this year.
The warning cane as global stocks and government bond yields fell after oil prices plummeted by almost 30 per cent on Monday.
He noted : “Oil’s sharpest one-day drop since the 1991 Gulf war has
further fuelled the sell-off in global stock markets that started a
couple of weeks ago on fears that coronavirus is going to severely
damage economic growth.
“Every major stock market is getting hammered as oil prices plunge due to a price war following the breakdown of Saudi Arabia’s oil-cutting alliance with Russia over the weekend.”
Green maintained that “This is an issue that will not be resolved overnight, ” stressing that ” it can be expected to have far-reaching consequences.”
According to Green, “It comes as the world scrambles to deal with the market mayhem and economic fallout caused by the relentless global spread of coronavirus.
“With the combination of the implications of the oil stand-off and the outbreak, I now believe that it’s almost inevitable that there will be a global recession this year.”
Before the oil price drop, last week Green had noted: “The outbreak has
already sent the stock market into bouts of volatility not seen since
the 2008 financial crisis, severely disrupted global supply chains,
shuttered factories, grounded flights, closed attractions and cancelled major events.
“Entire powerhouse cities in Asia and Europe are nearly
shut down. Multinational companies have warned that coronavirus will severely hit profits. Workers are being evacuated and forced to work
from home and to avoid travelling.
“We can see both supply and consumer demand are already being impacted in key sectors, such as travel and tourism, hospitality, manufacturing and retail, and it is going to extend to others.
“This scenario is then likely to feed on itself: a lack of consumer
confidence and spending, lack of business investment, more job cuts,
which means even less spending and demand, which leads to further job cuts.”
The deVere CEO affirmed : “In times of increasing volatility, investors
need to ensure that they remain in the markets with their suitably
diversified portfolios – not only to safeguard their wealth, but to
create and build it too.
“As ever, there will be winners and losers and savvy investors and their
financial advisers will be eyeing the opportunities that fluctuations,
panic-selling and mis-pricing generate, allowing them to revise and add high quality equities to their portfolios at lower prices.”
Green concluded: “The ultimate impact that the oil price war will
have on an already vulnerable world economy that’s struggling to cope with the spread of coronavirus remains unknown.
“However, the risk of a short but severe global recession in 2020 has
now been heightened dramatically.”
